UCF at Southern Miss

Thursday’s line: USM -14.5

First meeting: 2005 in Hattiesburg

Last meeting: 2008 in Orlando (USM won 17-6)

USM leads the series 3-1

CUSA play starts early for the Golden Eagles as the Knights come to town in Game 2. UCF, which has at times seemed poised for greatness after winning CUSA’s Eastern Division and posting the best record in the conference twice since joining the league in 2005 and claiming a championship in 2007, limped to a 4-8 (3-5) record in 2008, continuing O’Leary’s alternating winning season/losing season streak in Orlando. The Eagles are comfortably favored at The Rock on the heels of their smackdown of Alcorn and the Knights’ struggles against FCS Samford.

Particularly disappointing vs. Samford was UCF’s offense, which only compiled 282 total yards. UCF returned 10 starters from last year, but they only continued the Knights’ struggles from 2008, when they ranked dead last in the nation in total offense as they struggled to settle on a starting QB. That particular issue also continued, as sophomore QB Rob Calabrese started vs. Samford after starting the final 4 games of 2008 only to be replaced in the game by redshirt senior and Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges, who tossed what turned out to be the game-winning TD to Jamar Newsome with 11 minutes left. Hodges completed 10-of-17 for 129 yards off the bench compared to Calabrese’s 3-for-7 for 28, though Hodges also threw an interception that Samford ran 67 yards the other way for a score. O’Leary is expected to use the same plan on Saturday vs. USM, with Calabrese getting the start but both expected to play. Aside from Hodges’ late heroics, another (the other?) bright spot for UCF’s offense was Brynn Harvey’s 111 yards rushing on 33 carries.

The Knights’ pass defense didn’t fare a whole lot better than the offense, allowing Samford, led by 2008 Southern Conference Freshman of the Year QB Dustin Taliaferro, 208 yards through the air on 60% completions. Taliaferro himself threw for 141 of those yards, nearing his 2008 season average of 158.6, not good considering Samford only played one game vs. an FBS foe in ‘08. Taliaferro was also only sacked once. UCF fared better against the run, only allowing 78 yards on the ground. Leading the defensive effort for the Knights was DB Darin Baldwin, who claimed 7 tackles and 3 pass break-ups, and DE Jarvis Geathers, who recorded the lone sack. Should DeAndre Brown play for Southern Miss on Saturday, expect Baldwin to be the primary back charged with containing him.

Baldwin also played a big role in UCF’s high point of the day: kick returns. The Knights piled up 289 return yards on Samford, 190 on kickoffs and 99 on punts, for their best performance in that category since joining Divison I-A/the FBS. Baldwin returned a kickoff 72 yards to the Samford 11 late in the 3^rd quarter, but UCF squandered the opportunity by stalling and eventually getting a Jamie Boyle FG blocked. Leading the return game for the Knights was WR Rocky Ross, who compiled 91 yards on 6 returns, including a long of 39.

All in all, UCF was much less impressive in their opening game than Southern Miss, even after accounting for the different levels of competition. Given the fact that the Knights’ woes are the same ones they had last year, the safe assumption is that the Samford performance wasn’t just a one-game hiccup. It’s said that teams make their most improvement from Week 1 to Week 2 of a football season, and UCF better hope that’s true in their case and not so much in USM’s. While those kick returns should be of particular concern for the Golden Eagles, nothing much else should scare USM fans as long as the team shows up ready to play.

Well, here it is, the first–err, second–entry of the 2009 football season. While I considered getting an earlier jump on the festivities, various things (including a new computer purchase and other things I’ll mention later) got in the way, and let’s be honest: is the glorified scrimmage that will be Alcorn really worth a full “Know Thy Enemy” write-up?

For what it’s worth, FTF plans to take a new tact from here on out, adding more frequent, smaller updates and entries rather than saving up for sporadic, more long-winded entries—essentially taking a more traditional “blog” approach. (Having a computer that runs a little faster than molasses going uphill in wintertime will make executing this plan noticeably easier.)

An oldie but a goodie

Anyway, since there’s really not a whole lot to say about the game until after we see the 2009 Eagles in action, I’m going to take this time to espouse some of my own “undeniable truths” as they apply to Southern Miss football.

To borrow some old-school USM lingo, I believe:

…playing college football on any non-holiday Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, or Sunday is just plain dumb no matter how you stack it. While the World Wide Leader ostensibly sells schools on “exposure,” they fail to take into account that high school recruits are–by definition–otherwise occupied on Friday nights and no one outside of the fan base you already have is going to tune in when the Cowboys and Steelers are playing on another channel. While the UABs of the world will never be able to turn down the cash, I fully expect to see more schools with potentially workable followings to take on USM’s current philosophy that you’re better off maximizing butts in the seats than giving some random guy in a bar 800 miles away who’ll never buy a ticket or join your booster club an opportunity to see you play.  On a related note,

…sellouts cause season ticket sales, they do not result from them. And speaking of tickets,

…the Southern Miss ticket office is an embarrassment. Rare is the fan who’s been around for any length of time who doesn’t have a unflattering story to tell. In my own case, I’m still waiting for a callback on upgrading my season tickets (no biggie, guys; I was just going to double what I have been paying, and we all know the athletic department is swimming in money anyway, right?) that I was told would come in early July. And that’s just my latest bad experience. Speaking of which, I also believe…

…yes, on average, Golden Eagle fans are, in fact, a mightily complaining bunch. However, the solution to that lies not in the fans being more forgiving, but in the department giving them fewer things about which to complain.

…paraphrasing EaglePost’s RockTheRock, when you win 12 games, you can get people in the stands to wave whatever you want them to wave.

…if you want major college football, but you want also want a placid fan base, cheap parking right next to the stadium, a roster full of guys who never get in trouble, and your children to be able to play tag on the playing surface…well, you just need to make up your mind.

…an organization having a “family” mentality has its strong points, but it also opens the door for a family’s less-desirable traits, such as bickering, rivalry, and gossip. Somewhat related,

…it’s improving, but Southern Miss still has a problem with supporters who care more about what the athletic programs can do for their egos than what they can do to improve the programs over the long haul.

…if that last one offended you, you’re probably one of those people.

… ”a penchant for finding diamonds in the rough” is a nice way of saying, “recruiting kinda sucks, but we get lucky every now and then.”

And last but not least, I honestly believe

…this team is going to have the best season the school has seen in an awfully long time, but it’s probably a year away from a BCS bowl run. We’re still a few big ol’ offensive lineman away (in terms of depth, not the quality of our starters) from running with the big dogs with any consistency.

——————

Also, a brief sad note as it somewhat relates to this blog. The two of you out there who have actually taken the time to read my bio have seen the crack in there about how “the cat run[s] the house.” I’m sad to say that said cat is no longer with us. After battling a neurological problem that slowly took away her mobility over the past year-plus and that we chose not to have diagnosed in detail due to the invasiveness of the applicable testing vs. the minuscule chance of anything being able to be done about it, she was gracefully put to rest this past Thursday after providing the wife and me (as well as many other relatives and friends) a half-decade of wonderful companionship as well as entertainment. Godspeed, little Cali, godspeed.

Photo by George Clark, Clarion Ledger

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photo by George Clark, special to the Clarion Ledger

With the big win over Florida, the baseball Golden Eagles are one win away from the College World Series.  I don’t really want to say a whole lot about that pending the eventual outcome, but there was something else at the game apart from the result that has some pretty big implications for Southern Miss’ athletic program.

As mentioned more than once by the ESPNU commentators and reported by the AP, there was a substantial Golden Eagle contingent at Florida’s McKethan Stadium.  Of an official attendance of 3,571, roughly 1,000 were in black and gold.  Some fan reports actually had Eagle supporters outnumbering Gator supporters.   Yes, the weather probably influenced the home crowd, but even so, selling out one’s visitor’s allotment in a matter of hours and having a crowd of 1,000 on the road is no small feat for a baseball program.  Also, this comes on the heels of Georgia Tech coach Danny Hall actually calling out his own fans after USM’s fans showed them up so badly at the Atlanta Regional:

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About 15 years ago (has it really been that long?), a buddy of mine, after witnessing a spirited crowd at a women’s basketball showdown at Reed Green Coliseum with Auburn and later the boisterous mass of humanity in Death Valley West, observed that for as maligned as Southern Miss fans are, you can certainly count on ‘em if you give them something to truly get excited about–essentially, if you provide them a major-college event, they’ll provide you major-college support.  Saturday bears that out.  The problem comes in when you’re finishing in 4th place in a rather awful football conference while boring people half to death or confusing basketball with keep-away.  Folks who are constantly bombarded with the mystique/drama/hype of Southern schools playing at the highest level and competing for championships on a regular basis simply aren’t interested in that stuff.  For as much as people like to use the word “fickle,” the simple fact of the matter is, you can’t make people care if they don’t.  No one’s obligated to attend a sporting event.  And it certainly doesn’t help if you habitually embarrass yourself every time you do get them to show up.  However, give them something to hang their proverbial hats on, pique their interest, and you’ll get as fanatic support here as you will most anywhere.

One can only hope that what we saw both in the stands and on the field Saturday is merely a glimpse of even bigger and better things to come.

For the second year in a row, the Golden Eagle coaching staff reeled in a top-notch group of athletes that Rivals.com tabbed the best in the conference (Scout.com was not as enthused, though I’m not sure

"With each letter, it becomes visibly better...."

how a high school All-American only gets 3 stars and probably even more puzzling, an All-Region guy from one of the toughest JuCo circuts in the county only manages 2 (?!?) stars in their particular system–for the record, Scout has no dedicated Southern Miss affiliate site, whereas Rivals does).

While there is some disappointment at the lack of a DeAndre Brown-like prodigy and USM’s failure to bring in any of the three big names still being courted Wednesday morning, this class is deeper, better off academically, and arguably better on average than last year’s class that got so many people talking, and still blows any class from recent memory out of the water.  That we’ve already reached the point where not getting a consensus 5-star or a possible Pat White-in-waiting from Maryland is a letdown is a testament to just how far things have progressed in Larry Fedora’s brief tenure.  While people “ooh” and “ahh” the most over individual standouts, the most telling fact is how today’s “average” signees are at the same level as the highlights of our past recruiting classes.  Using the Rivals numbers, from 2003-2007, Southern Miss signed a total of one 4-star recruit and an average of six 3-stars per year (never fewer than 3 and never more than 8).  When all the dust settled yesterday, we had signed three 4-stars and 15 3-stars.  That’s a phenomenal leap in talent and depth thereof.

In other signing day news, I attended the Southern Miss party at the Hard Rock Casino in Biloxi.  Since my group sat in the very front and most of the tables were on a stage behind us, I can’t give an accurate attendance estimate.  I will say, however, that the highlight of the evening had to be Reggie Collier interrupting Dick Vogel during his supposedly inspirational speech about how much better things are at Ole Miss in order to salvage the situation.  I guess some things change around here, and some don’t.

• 70 points. Just wow.
• Attendance was better than expected. It wasn’t great, and obviously, there’s a Homecoming boost, but considering the record, I expected a much bigger dropoff since Boise. I really think a) the majority of fans realize this is a building process and b) win or lose, a lot of folks still want to see what Fletcher, Davis, and Brown are going to do next.
• Speaking of Fletcher, another round of congratulations to him for becoming the first 4,000-yard rusher in USM history as well as the first to go three straight years over 1,000.
• Congrats also to Davis, who broke a school record for rushing TDs in one game (previously held by Chris Windsor, Shelton Gandy, and Doyle Orange) as well as Brett Favre’s school record for TD passes in a season by a freshman. The folks who do the media guide are going to be busy this off-season.
• The defense did a great job, but I wouldn’t read too much into it just yet. Their 5 turnovers–UAB coughed up 6, but one was on a kick return–were great (the interception by Andre Watson was phenomenal), but you’re simply not going to get that every week. Whether or not we can stop a team that protects the ball a little better remains to be seen.
• I was seriously digging the gold-on-gold, even though the blogosphere’s most famous USM alum Dr. Saturday (The Artist Formerly Known as the Sunday Morning Quarterback) disagreed. (C’mon Matt. Don’t hate on your own school like that!) Oddly enough, Wyoming also wore gold-on-gold for the first time ever on Saturday, and California broke out the same color scheme. All three schools won. If those three, West Virginia, and Minnesota are ever all at home on the same day, we should coordinate just to try to crash the UniWatch website.

[As you can see, it's been light blogging (well, non-blogging) for a while here at FTF. There are various reasons for this, including a stomach flu I wouldn't wish on anyone that hit the week of the Memphis game. Hopefully, this entry will mark a return to more regular updates for the rest of the season.]

U.A.B. (2-6, 1-3) at Southern Miss (2-6, 0-4)

Thursday’s line: USM -9

First meeting: 2000 in Birmingham

Last meeting: 2007 in Birmingham (USM won 37-7.)

Southern Miss leads the series 8-0

Last week: Memphis def. Southern Miss 36-30; UAB def. Marshall 23-21

In what doesn’t exactly shape up as a battle of the titans, UAB arrives in Hattiesburg this weekend as the Golden Eagles’ homecoming guest. Both teams come in looking to break significant losing streaks: USM trying to halt a 5-game mid-season skid, and UAB looking to end both an 8-game losing streak—the entirety of the series—to USM and an 18-game losing streak on the road. Coming off their own homecoming win over East-leading Marshall, surely the Blazers can smell the blood as the Golden Eagles look to stop the bleeding.

Unfortunately for Golden Eagle fans, it doesn’t get a whole lot easier for the woeful Southern Miss defense this week. UAB is led on offense by versatile junior QB Joe Webb, who accounted for 352 yards vs. Marshall and set a single-season Conference USA record for rushing yards by a quarterback in the process. Webb enters Saturday having completed 57% of his passes for 1726 yards and having produced 723 yards on the ground for the team lead. Webb’s favorite target when throwing the ball is sophomore WR Frantrell Forrest, who has almost twice as many catches (33) as the next person on UAB’s list, compiling 419 yards and 2 TDs along the way. The aforementioned next person on the list is sophomore TE Jeffery Anderson, but he also leads the Blazers in TD catches with 3. UAB’s second-leading rusher is junior Rashaud Slaughter (who’s actually listed on the roster as a wide receiver) with 332 yards. The UAB offense operates behind a somewhat young but experienced line, personified by RT Terrence Edge who will be starting his 16th game despite being a sophomore.

The story gets a little better when examining the UAB defense, which has been a bit below the median vs. the run (allowing 160 yards and change per game) but 118th (3rd from the bottom) nationally vs. the pass. The latter stat is pretty disappointing to the Blazers, as the secondary was expected to be a strength in 2008. Expect senior Kevin Sanders to be given the assignment of covering DeAndre Brown, and keep your eye on LB Joe Henderson, the team’s leading tackler (with 61) , and FS Will Dunbar, who led the conference in tackles in 2007 and has 43 on the year despite missing a game earlier in the season. On the line, UAB is basically one year removed from the situation USM finds itself in this year: entering the season, 3 of the Blazers’ returning starters at end and tackle were sophomores. One of them is end Turner Bryant, who leads the team with 4 sacks, matching the combined total of the rest of the line.

Once again, Southern Miss faces a team against which it should be able to move the ball, and once again, the million-dollar question is whether or not the Golden Eagle defense will be at all able to slow down the opponent. With Webb under center for UAB, the prospect is not encouraging, especially considering the 146 yards racked up by the last running QB to visit The Rock. Granted, that was also the last victory posted in the friendly confines of Roberts Stadium, but with the additional threat of Webb’s arm, it becomes a scary proposition.

• The defense looked unbelievably better in every aspect. Sure, Boise State scored 24 points, but 1) Boise State does that and worse to everyone, and 2) Boise was given too many short fields to work with, which brings us to…
• The 4th-and-1 call early in the 2nd quarter was dumb as a box of rocks on Larry Fedora’s part. Yes, you have to expect to gain one measly yard. Yes, it’s a big boost if you make it. HOWEVER, the coach has to consider the consequences of not making it, which in this case was giving a superior opponent the ball on your own 45 yard line after your defense had put up a yeoman’s effort to kept them off the scoreboard in the opening quarter. That was a game-changing decision, and Fedora blew it, as I’ve seen so many new coaches (including future two-time National Champion coach Steve Campbell back in his first season at Southwest Mississippi CC) do in that situation. The good news is that you never see any of them repeat the mistake.
• The offense was just off. To spend that much time in Boise State territory and only score one TD was awful. How much of that was to Boise’s credit and how much was the proverbial growing pains, who knows? Specifically…
• The game still seems just a little too fast for Austin Davis, which is to be expected when you’re talking about a redshirt freshman (especially one who came to school on a baseball scholarship). His decisions aren’t bad overall, but against a quality team, he has got to make them more quickly. He could potentially become a holy terror for those on our remaining schedule.
• What in the WORLD is up with our FG kicking game? The woes there continued with a block of the potential go-ahead score to start the game.
• All props to the Boise State fans, who may have brought the largest visiting crowd so far this year. The only other possibility is UL-Lafayette. As much as we fuss about CUSA being so spread out as to discourage travel, all those folks in blue and orange Saturday proved its more just a matter of giving a damn.
• Two words on Reggie Collier’s jersey retirement: About time.
• I cried because I had CUSA refs, until I saw the man who had WAC refs.

#15 AP/16 USAT Boise State (4-0, 1-0 WAC) at Southern Miss (2-3, 0-2 CUSA)

Thursday’s line: Boise State -10

First meeting: 2007 in Boise

Last meeting: 2007 in Boise (Boise State won, 38-16)

Boise State leads the series 1-0

Last week: UTEP def. USM 40-37 (2OT); BSU def. Louisiana Tech 38-3

With their season not going very well as it nears its mid-point, the Golden Eagles are presented with a golden opportunity as #15/16 Boise State, the poster child for teams outside the BCS automatic qualifier pool, visit The Rock for an out-of-conference tilt. As a program, the Broncos need little introduction, as they are both the winningest FBS program in the country since 2000 and keepers of college football legend. However, as we do (most) every week here at KTE, we’ll take a look at the specific names to know and trends to watch headed into this week’s contest.

As has always been the case in recent memory, Boise State brings with them an offensive juggernaut. The Broncos are led on the ground by senior Ian Johnson, who in addition to seemingly having been at Boise forever and having made the Marriage Proposal Heard ‘Round the World, entered 2008 as the active FBS leader in both rushing and total touchdowns. Currently, Johnson is having a less-than-stellar year statistically, averaging “only” 66.5 yards per game and 4.84 per carry. This doesn’t bother the Bronco faithful all that much, however, as freshman quarterback Kellen Moore is having a banner year under center, currently 6th in the FBS in passing rating and 8th in yards per game (291.3). As shown above in the game basics, Boise State has played 4 games. Moore has already been the WAC Player of the Week twice. Moore shows little favoritism in where he throws the ball, with 5 of his teammates already over 100 yards receiving and 3 at double-digits in number of receptions. Junior WR Jeremy Childs leads the pack with 14 catches and a 72+ yards per game average, while sophomore WR Titus Young (10 catches for 168 yards) and senior TE Chris O’Neil (10 for 131) round out the triumvirate of players with 10 more receptions. Johnson (6 for 177) and senior WR Vinny Perretta (8 for 132) are the others with over 100 yards receiving.

Boise State also packs a special teams weapon in placekicker/punter sophomore Kyle Brotzman, who was a Lou Groza Award semi-finalist his freshman year. Brotzman is 4 out of 5 in field goal attempts thus far in ’08–2-for-2 from 40 yards or more–and has yet to miss a PAT in 18 chances.

Unfortunately for Southern Miss, the Broncos have not been slouches on defense, either, thus far in 2008, coming into Hattiesburg 12th in the FBS in points allowed–in large part due to a red zone D that allowed only 3 points to Louisiana Tech in 6 visits inside the Broncos’ 20–and 37th in passing yards allowed per game. If there is any consolation, it is that Boise has actually been pretty average vs. the run, ranking 60th in yards allowed per game. Key players to watch include the DE tandem of sophomore Ryan Winterswyk (3 tackles for loss, one-half sack) and senior DE Mike T. Williams; safeties sophomore Jeron Johnson and senior Ellis Powers, who rank 1-2 in tackles; and freshman OLB Aaron Tevis, who leads the team in sacks with 2.

In what may be the hidden stat of the game, it’s interesting to note that the Broncos’ high pass-defense ranking is considerably skewed by a 92-yard performance vs. FCS Big Sky Conference member Idaho State. In fact, 2 of Boise State’s 3 FBS opponents have had above-average passing performances vs. the Broncos: Louisiana Tech passed for 202 yards vs. Boise State while averaging only 173 over the season, and Oregon–despite starting their 3rd-string QB and being forced to go to their 4th–passed for 237 vs. BSU while averaging only 215. Can Southern Miss—#32 nationally in passing yards per game—do the same and expose the Broncos defense? If so, we could be looking at real shootout Saturday night.

That said, the obvious prediction for this game is that it will come down Boise’s defense vs. the Southern Miss offense. The chances of Southern Miss’ young–and awful–D even slowing down the Broncos are slim. USM simply has to be able to answer when–not if–Boise State puts points on the board. If that happens, you can expect the kind of game that’ll make USM’s basketball team jealous, and it could come down to who has the ball last or makes the last mistake. If Boise State can make stops, however, the game could get ugly in a hurry and stay that way.

• Congratulations to Damion Fletcher, the new all-time rushing leader at Southern Miss.
• The box score won’t show it, and there’s still plenty of work to do, but the offensive line probably played its best game yet, and the coverage on defense was much improved. The weak link is still the defensive line. It’s awfully difficult to cover guys when the opposing QB has all night to decide what he wants to do. Overall, the biggest problem is trying to play defense with smoke and mirrors.
• Heartbreaking near-misses are certainly nothing new for USM, but it’s doubly frustrating from the perspective of building as opposed to an individual game here and there.
• I just can’t help but get the feeling that once this worm turns, we’re going to get hot.
• Was I the only one having Louisville 2002 flashbacks with that kicking performance?
• Man, it sure is tough to leave campus when everybody stays until the end of the game. Here’s hoping it only gets tougher.

[P.S. Apologies to both of my fans for there not being a Know Thy Enemy last week. Real life reared its ugly head and interfered with my writing time.]