Based upon what’s been out there in the Southern Miss rumor mill for months now, what’s going on elsewhere, and what I continue to hear, here’s what Good ol’ HP sees happening:

1) Our fate does not rest with the Big Ten’s next move. That they will be the ones to fire the first shot is a bad assumption. Why? Because the Big East is going to make the first move this time. After the last go-round with the ACC, being reactionary has already gotten old to them. Louisville AD Tom Jurich is supposedly the one driving this football train, and we all know how progressive he is. The Big East knows their future eventually lies in a 12-team football conference, so there’s no reason to wait. They’re going to add 4 teams sooner rather than later in order to stabilize, and then if the Big Televen wants to steal one afterward, they’ll just find a replacement at that point.

2) Southern Miss will be among the 4 invited. In addition to all the reasons discussed here into oblivion, the level of confidence that’s been allowed to run rampant just doesn’t jive with us being a contingency plan.

3) If I had to guess, Marshall’s the team left on hold. In addition to the Herd having a lack of new things to offer to the Big East (they’re no more athletically overwhelming than the other CUSA candidates, and the Big East already owns the state as it is), that move allows West Virginia a chance to kick that can down the road and postpone dealing with it, assuming they ever have to. If the Big Ten manages to swipe Missouri or Notre Dame, it’s not even an issue. If the Big Ten does take Rutgers (or Pitt), then maybe the Big East can take one last stab at wooing the Irish. Assuming there is no WVU/MU angst, you can also trade Marshall and WVU for UCF and USF in this scenario. It just depends on who sees whom as a bigger turd in the pool.