Based upon what’s been out there in the Southern Miss rumor mill for months now, what’s going on elsewhere, and what I continue to hear, here’s what Good ol’ HP sees happening:

1) Our fate does not rest with the Big Ten’s next move. That they will be the ones to fire the first shot is a bad assumption. Why? Because the Big East is going to make the first move this time. After the last go-round with the ACC, being reactionary has already gotten old to them. Louisville AD Tom Jurich is supposedly the one driving this football train, and we all know how progressive he is. The Big East knows their future eventually lies in a 12-team football conference, so there’s no reason to wait. They’re going to add 4 teams sooner rather than later in order to stabilize, and then if the Big Televen wants to steal one afterward, they’ll just find a replacement at that point.

2) Southern Miss will be among the 4 invited. In addition to all the reasons discussed here into oblivion, the level of confidence that’s been allowed to run rampant just doesn’t jive with us being a contingency plan.

3) If I had to guess, Marshall’s the team left on hold. In addition to the Herd having a lack of new things to offer to the Big East (they’re no more athletically overwhelming than the other CUSA candidates, and the Big East already owns the state as it is), that move allows West Virginia a chance to kick that can down the road and postpone dealing with it, assuming they ever have to. If the Big Ten manages to swipe Missouri or Notre Dame, it’s not even an issue. If the Big Ten does take Rutgers (or Pitt), then maybe the Big East can take one last stab at wooing the Irish. Assuming there is no WVU/MU angst, you can also trade Marshall and WVU for UCF and USF in this scenario. It just depends on who sees whom as a bigger turd in the pool.

Fletcher is dealing with a groin strain, Brown a bruised shoulder.  Morris is still recovering from a concussion suffered vs. Virginia via a hit that USM has asked the NCAA to review.

Read more details via the American here.

The team should be OK without the trio, but it’s a shame their injuries will cost Fletcher and Brown some TV time.  Best wishes to Morris as he deals with something that can be especially exasperating.

Hopefully, a positive from this news will be that it will motivate the rest of the team a little more to not take this game for granted since two of its premiere offensive weapons won’t be available.

FWIW, UAB has their own injury problems.

What Southern Miss president Martha Saunders referred to as the worst-kept secret in the state became official Thursday when Mississippi State and Southern Miss announced a two-game, two-year, home-and-home football series with games in Starkville in 2014 and Hattiesburg in 2015.

It’s almost anticlimactic to have to wait another 5 years for this after all the rumors and discussion lately, but that was as soon as the two teams’ schedules allowed according to  the schools’ respective athletic directors.

Details here.

Details here:  http://southernmiss.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/090609aaa.html

Smart move on the part of the athletic department on the heels of the record-breaking crowd and good showing on Saturday.  Strike while the iron’s hot and woo some of the folks who had to get up early and stand in line at the ticket booths this weekend.

ESPN.com is now openly discussing peeling off the richest/most prestigious/most-ratings-bringing-in college football programs into their own league. Here‘s the intro. A later column describes it as “a great idea that will be a major story focus for us over the next several days.”

Granted, I really do believe something similar to this will happen eventually, but to see the World Wide Leader hawking it so unabashedly is tacky even by their standards.

Oh, yeah.  Keep in mind Pat Forde is the “other” smart aleck over at ESPN who once asked, “Who, precisely, does Southern Miss think it is?”

• After 4 games, it’s clear now that our defense is all but non-existent. As I’ve stated before, this should come as a surprise to no one and I don’t see a quick fix coming any time soon.
• We were down 14 with about 3 minutes left, and not only scored to cut the lead to 7, but got the ball back with about 1:30 left. The combination of persistence on the team’s part and game management on the coaches’ part was the most encouraging thing I’d seen out of a Southern Miss team in ages. In prior years, just scoring the first TD alone in that situation would’ve been an iffy proposition.
• When I read people just now voicing concerns about our team losing games they were expected to win, looking flat, or any number of other issues, I can only wonder what the hell they have been watching since around mid-2000 or so.
• Speaking of which, if you’re keeping score at home, Saturday marked USM’s 3rd consecutive CUSA loss at home and 4th in the last 5 chances. Ugh.
• It sure was nice to see Fedora man up and take some blame in his post-game comments.
• The gold jerseys looked great. I hope they’re not locked away just because of the loss.

The fine folks at CollegeSportsReport.com named Southern Miss their FBS “National Team of the Week.” Details here.

Meanwhile, over at Fox Sports, Golden Eagle Running back Damion Fletcher placed #7 on their Heisman Race list after his 222-rushing-yard and 2 TD performance vs. UL-Lafayette.

Congratulations to Fletch and everyone else on and involved with the team. Once again, it’s hard to believe that just 10 months ago, every pundit in the sportsosphere was struggling to find the words to describe how wrong and evil Southern Miss was.

Southern Miss (1-0, 0-0) at Auburn (1-0, 0-0)

Monday’s line: Auburn –17

First meeting: 1946 in Montgomery

Last meeting: 1993 in Auburn

Auburn leads the series 16-5

Last week: USM def. La-Lafayette 51-21; Auburn def. La-Monroe 34-0

The Golden Eagles get little time to celebrate their wildly successful season opener as Week 2 brings them to the Alabama plain to face Auburn. The Tigers represent Southern Miss’ only game in 2008 vs. a BCS-auto-qualifier conference as well as their first tilt against an SEC team in 2 days short of a year.

Coming off of a disappointing 5-3 conference record in 2007 due in large part to offensive struggles, head coach Tommy Tuberville decided to try something different and brought in a new offensive coordinator in Tony Franklin, formerly the guiding force behind Troy’s spread offense. Franklin was unhappy with his offensive unit’s performance—as well as his own—this past Saturday vs. Louisiana-Monroe, going as far as to say, “We stink and it’s my fault.” In terms of the passing game, the stench was unavoidable as starting QB Kodi Burns completed a disappointing 4 of 9 passes for 15 yards before leaving the game with a lacerated leg mid-way through the 3rd quarter. Auburn’s other QB, Chris Todd, who battled neck-and-neck with Burns for the starting nod and shared playing time before taking over for good after Burns’ injury, finished 9-for-18 for 70 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The running game, however, was a completely different story, racking up 321 yards. Junior Ben Tate accounted for 115 of those yards, including a 49-yarder; Burns rushed for 69; freshman Eric Smith rushed for 66; and senior Brad Lester gained 52 yards and accounted for Auburn’s other (yes, there were only 2) offensive TD.

The Plainsmen also have a new coordinator on defense, with Paul Rhoads replacing the departed Will “BOOM, M*+#@^-F^@%er!” Muschamp, who left for the same position at Texas and incidentally was on the short list of potential replacements for Jeff Bower. Rhoads’ weapons include junior end Antonio Coleman, who led the team in sacks (8.5) in 2007 and newly relocated tackle Sen’Derick Marks who led the line in tackles (43) in 2007 from the end position. Auburn also features a solid rotation of linebackers in Tray Blackmon (45 tackles in an injury-plagued ’07, 2 vs. UL-M), Courtney Harden (4 tackles vs. UL-M), Merrill Johnson (3 solo tackles vs. UL-M), Craig Stevens, and Chris Evans (3 tackles each vs. UL-M). The Tigers were especially effective vs. the pass in 2007, ranking 6th in the nation in yards against, and picked up right where they left off vs. UL-M by allowing only 136 yards and no TDs via the air. The Tigers were no slouch vs. the run, either, ranking 28th in the nation in ’07, and allowing only 84 yards on 30 carries this past Saturday. In what may be a ray of hope for Southern Miss, Auburn did only manage two sacks vs. an inexperienced (1 returning starter) and presumably overmatched Warhawk O-line.

Last week, Auburn had to rely on defense and special teams to separate themselves out of the gate from a .500 Sun Belt opponent (albeit one who beat Auburn’s own in-state rival last year), managing only a field goal on offense in the first half. However, after going run-heavy in the second half, they more than proved they could move the ball on the ground. That does not bode well for the Golden Eagles, who gave up 263 yards rushing to the other UL this past Saturday. Expect Auburn to put that equation to the test early and often on Saturday. If USM can somehow slow AU’s ground game, it’ll go quite a long way in improving the Golden Eagles’ chances for a win. Auburn’s QB situation is still somewhat up in the air (no pun intended), with Franklin expecting to play both Burns and Todd, though the latter may be slowed by the aforementioned gash on his leg and the multiple stitches required to close it [UPDATE: Todd has been named the starter.]

When Southern Miss has the ball, Auburn will have to remain effective against the run (especially Damion Fletcher, who put up 222 yards in the opener) and produce more pressure on the quarterback in order to slow down a Golden Eagle offense already (and surprisingly) practically firing on all cylinders with Austin Davis under center (633 yards vs. UL-L, good for the week’s 3rd-best outing in the nation). While it obviously shouldn’t be as easy for the Southern Miss “O” vs. Auburn as it was vs. UL-L, the combination of talent and the law of averages should still result in some opportunities, and a big play here and there could make a huge difference in the final outcome.

The last time Southern Miss entered Jordan-Hare stadium with a new head coach–a long, long time ago–the Golden Eagles stunned the Tigers 10-9. Expect the opposite in terms of scoring this time around, with neither team really stopping the other, and the one who only best slows the other’s game plan coming out on top. The last 4 games between USM and AU have been decided by a mere 5.5 point average, and based on the first week’s work from both teams, this one may not be any different. Expect Auburn’s advantage in defensive experience and depth to prove the difference.

As I’m sure everyone reading this already knows, the AP’s pre-season poll came out Saturday with the obligatory fanfare and ado. Unfortunately, no Conference USA team was even close to cracking the Top 25. Tulsa was the conference’s lone representative in the “Others Receiving Votes” category with 7 total points. In contrast, in the USA Today coaches’ poll, UCF not only joined Tulsa in the ORV, but the Knights finished ahead of them 2 points to 1.

Obviously, this is not a good starting point for CUSA, who has yet place a team in the final Top 25 of either poll since the 2005 reconfiguration, but that’s hardly anything new or worthy of a blog entry. It does, however, fall pretty much in line with where the 2007 polls ended (see previous link), with Tulsa landing 4 points in the AP and 5 in the USAT and UCF picking up 4 points from the coaches.

That last tidbit begs the question: just how much thought goes into these polls, especially when it comes to teams not in the BCS-AQ conferences? Apparently, the coaches who included UCF in their rankings are pretty optimistic about UCF picking up right where they left off despite the Knights losing their top running back—as well as the nation’s—in Kevin Smith, and his understudies having to work behind an offensive line sans 3 of last year’s starters. That’s a lot to overcome and expect to not miss a beat.

In Tulsa’s case, it can be argued that the Golden Hurricane didn’t get the love it deserved in the first place, having finished last season at 10-3 and walloping Bowling Green in the GMAC Bowl, but it’s easy to understand the sentiment when Tulsa in turn got almost equally walloped by Oklahoma early in the season and failed to beat UCF in two attempts, including the CUSA Championship game. Less-than-impressive showings vs. 2007’s CUSA dregs didn’t help their case, either, so it really was a stretch to argue them a Top 25 team at the end of last year (especially after UCF’s boredom-inducing loss to Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl). Nonetheless, it’s hard to explain how Tulsa gets nearly double the votes in the 2008 preseason poll than it did in the final 2007 poll when the ‘Cane is replacing not only its starting QB, but its CUSA Offensive Player of the Year starting QB in Paul Smith (who obviously had to beat out UCF’s Smith for the honor). Granted, for all we know Tulsa’s offense can make any decent QB a record-breaker (it seems like Smith had been there a decade), but still, that’s a big question mark when it comes to Tulsa being better than they were last season.

What FTF really doesn’t understand is the lack of love for East Carolina. Last year, the Pirates finished 7-5 (6-2 in-conference), started the season by playing Virginia Tech within 10 in Blacksburg, and ended it by stunning Top 25 Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl. They’re also easily one of the best-off CUSA teams (if not the best) in terms of returning personnel. While ECU does move into 2008 without Chris Johnson, who led the nation in all-purpose yards last year, the Pirates do return their leading passer and second-leading rusher in QB Patrick Pinkney, their leading receiver in Jamar Bryant, and also have a CUSA All-Freshman performer, Jonathan Williams, poised as the replacement for Johnson. They also return the vast majority of their defense. By all indications, if anyone in CUSA is in a position to make a run at the polls this year, it is East Carolina. That Tulsa and UCF are getting votes (which is reasonable in itself; don’t get me wrong) while the Pirates aren’t shows you just how much the pollsters actually do their “mid major” homework as opposed to just copying-and-pasting the previous season’s final standings and calling it a prediction.