Based upon what’s been out there in the Southern Miss rumor mill for months now, what’s going on elsewhere, and what I continue to hear, here’s what Good ol’ HP sees happening:

1) Our fate does not rest with the Big Ten’s next move. That they will be the ones to fire the first shot is a bad assumption. Why? Because the Big East is going to make the first move this time. After the last go-round with the ACC, being reactionary has already gotten old to them. Louisville AD Tom Jurich is supposedly the one driving this football train, and we all know how progressive he is. The Big East knows their future eventually lies in a 12-team football conference, so there’s no reason to wait. They’re going to add 4 teams sooner rather than later in order to stabilize, and then if the Big Televen wants to steal one afterward, they’ll just find a replacement at that point.

2) Southern Miss will be among the 4 invited. In addition to all the reasons discussed here into oblivion, the level of confidence that’s been allowed to run rampant just doesn’t jive with us being a contingency plan.

3) If I had to guess, Marshall’s the team left on hold. In addition to the Herd having a lack of new things to offer to the Big East (they’re no more athletically overwhelming than the other CUSA candidates, and the Big East already owns the state as it is), that move allows West Virginia a chance to kick that can down the road and postpone dealing with it, assuming they ever have to. If the Big Ten manages to swipe Missouri or Notre Dame, it’s not even an issue. If the Big Ten does take Rutgers (or Pitt), then maybe the Big East can take one last stab at wooing the Irish. Assuming there is no WVU/MU angst, you can also trade Marshall and WVU for UCF and USF in this scenario. It just depends on who sees whom as a bigger turd in the pool.

As you can see, the Fever has been neglected of late (really?  No posts since October?!?).  Once the UAB Know They Enemy got pre-empted, things pretty much went to hell.  As I said I wouldn’t do, my Golden Eagle attention focused elsewhere, mainly the EaglePost message board.  A lackluster end to the football season didn’t exactly help things.

However, after a little live-blogging experiment on EP at the South Alabama basketball game (an unlimited internet package on a mobile phone is a wonderful thing), I was reminded of how underutilized my little soap box here has been.

All that said, the New Orleans Bowl beckons tonight for the second straight year.  Sadly, I am not making the trip as I’ll be driving quite enough this week as it is and I had already planned on attending the basketball Golden Eagles’ Christmas Classic tomorrow night and both would be just too much as the busyness of the rest of the week approaches.

On to the game.  I honestly don’t feel comfortable about this one.  Middle Tennessee will present a lively offense (Top 30 nationally in both yardage and scoring) to our porous defense that has struggled to stop most anyone, especially in the first half.  Worse yet, the Blue Raider offense centers around its dual-threat QB, Dwight Dasher, and while Southern Miss has fared pretty well in sheer number of sacks over the course of the season, anecdotally, it has not fared well in attempting to contain rushing QBs.

Hopefully, there will be enough of a size/talent differential in USM’s favor to overcome MTSU’s strategic advantages, but I’m stopping at “cautiously optimistic”

The two biggest things I’m looking forward to with interest are:

1) How big a game will DeAndre Brown have in his return to the Superdome after last year’s horrific injury?  If I’m Larry Fedora, I’m going to him deep on the first play just to get that out of the way.

2) Will we even bother trying extra points (you gotta scroll WAY down that link), or just go for two every time the situation presents?  According to reports, Fedora is pondering it.  May I humbly suggest NOT “doing the same thing as day one” when you’re dead last in the country at a particular task?

Tune in later for in-game updates.  I am nothing if not entertaining as a spectator.

UPDATE 1: Game underway.  Nearly had the same start as last year with a turnover for a TD.  Offense mixing up the run and pass nicely, but those lateral plays not getting us anything.  Good move putting Harrison in on the 3.  TOUCHDOWN EAGLES!!  Went for 2, which I won’t argue with, but it comes up short.

UPDATE 2 (9:20 left in the 1st): 3 and out for the defense.  Certainly didn’t see that coming.  Not sure if it’s just physical advantage or aggressiveness, but MT looked helpless there.

7:52 left in the 1st: QB sneak for a 1st down.  Did you see that, Pat Hill?

6:35 in the 1st: TOUCHDOWN, DEANDRE BROWN!!!  Another try for 2, this one good, also to Brown.

0:19 in the 1st: Dasher down while trying to make a cut and getting his knee examined on the field.  That did not look good.

14:43 in the 2nd: Never mind.  He’s back and just ran it for 24 yards.  Defense in a red zone situation for the first time tonight.  We’re still struggling to wrap up the QB.  Been a problem since Alcorn.

13:25 in the 2nd: The defense to which we’ve unfortunately become accustomed has reared it’s ugly head.  14-7 Eagles.

10:01 in the 2nd: Offense sputtering now.  Need a stop now, or this game’s gonna get WAY too interesting.  And just like that, Dasher runs for 6.

8:51 in the 2nd: Everybody else in the freakin’ country can get positive yards off the lateral screen.  Getting ready to spew the anti-Bradford venom.

6:45: OK, how do you let your coach challenge that if you’re the MT receiver?

6:30: Hmmm….we can tackle Sun Belt runner-up players 1-on-1.  That kinda backs up my assertion that our biggest problem on defense has been simply being physically weak relative to the competition.  Completely different game when your man in there to make the tackle and can actually do it.

Blocked FG.  Still 14-7.

5:53: Interception on the very next play.  MT ball on the USM 12.  F$%$itty-f$%%-f@#$.  Whew…may be saved by the replay.  Or not.  As I said, F$%$itty-f$%%-f@#$!!!

4:41: WHY!! CAN WE NOT!!! TACKLE!!! THE @#$%ING!!! QUARTERBACK?!?!?!?

3:45: Fletch now ahead of Tomlinson in career yardage.  Next stop: 1000 yard season.

2:09: Vertical passing game looking good.  Let’s have more of it, now.

0:07: FG called back on an offsides call.  Lined up to take a shot before calling time-out.  Here’s where the coach is a genius if it works and a moron if it doesn’t.

0:07: Never mind.  Lining up to kick it now.  Friend in the Dome said DeAndre was not happy with that decision at all.  17-14 Eagles at halftime.

OK, Why the funk is ESPN giving us a preview of the game at HALFTIME?  At least they gave SMU their mustang logo instead of our eagle head.

Second half underway…MTSU’s ball first.  Uh-oh.

14:43 in the 3rd: Amazing how lateral plays work as well for our opponents as they do poorly for us.

13:48: Dasher fumbles while breaking off a long run.  Somebody change that boy’s cleats (uh, or not).

13:20: …and Fletch goes over 1,000.  Congratulations to him.

12:21: Middle Tennessee starting to get that defensive pressure I feared going in.  Also got a text from a friend in the Dome after that last drive: “We look like Bower on Quaaludes.”

10:56: Big sack by Korey Williams.  Can we make it mean something?

10:20: HELL no, we can’t.  First-down pass on the next play, Dasher into the end zone on the next.  21-17 MTSU.

9:17: Once again, the vertical pass working pretty well….

8:06: Dammit, he’s got his yards.  Quit giving the ball to Dancin’ Damion and send it downfield.

7:36: Had to settle for a FG.  Yee-ha.

7:20: There’s that screen again.  How THE FUNK can every team we play run that with success when we get 5 yards a season out of it?  MTSU is just handling us at this point.  We look like that layer of white powder that forms on dog crap right about now.

4:43: Big play to bring up 3rd & 10.  Yippie!  Whoa.  Hold the phones.  We actually stopped them.

0:55: Another text from another friend: “Turf leads us in tackles.”

0:00: The entire defensive staff needs to be left in New Orleans.  Hell, leave the whole program down there for that matter.

13:00: We must lead the nation in false starts on the center.

11:55: Another f@#$ing false start.

11:51:

Austin Davis is out for the remainder of the season with what is presumably some type of Lis-Franc injury going by the few details made public so far.

Read the official release here at SouthernMiss.com.

In Davis’ absence, junior Martevious Young will be the starting quarterback, with true freshman Chris Campbell serving as the back-up according to a statement by Larry Fedora via Patrick Magee’s blog at the American.

Maybe football just isn’t our thing.

Fletcher is dealing with a groin strain, Brown a bruised shoulder.  Morris is still recovering from a concussion suffered vs. Virginia via a hit that USM has asked the NCAA to review.

Read more details via the American here.

The team should be OK without the trio, but it’s a shame their injuries will cost Fletcher and Brown some TV time.  Best wishes to Morris as he deals with something that can be especially exasperating.

Hopefully, a positive from this news will be that it will motivate the rest of the team a little more to not take this game for granted since two of its premiere offensive weapons won’t be available.

FWIW, UAB has their own injury problems.

Both the men’s and women’s basketball ‘09-’10 schedules are out now.

They can be found here and here, respectively.

Looks like the men are playing for another Tri-State NAIA title in December.  I’ve got nothing against an easy tune-up game to start and the Carey game makes sense, but the program is stuck in a Catch-22 in that we can’t host good out-of-conference games because attendance sucks, but one (but certainly not the only) reason it sucks is because of the pitiful, non-NCAA schedule.  Early home games have pretty much reached the “Why bother?” stage (some might argue that stage was passed long ago, but I digress).  At what point do you finally decide to just play on the road for the checks, then save up for a decent payout to someone worthwhile?

The first UL-USM tilt since 2002 is now scheduled for a 6:30 PM Central Time start on ESPNU (channel 614 on the awesomeness that Is DirecTV; otherwise, check your local listings).

Southern Miss (3-0) at #19/20 Kansas (3-0)

Thursday’s line: Kansas -14

First meeting: this one

Last time out: Southern Miss def. Virginia 37-34, Kansas def. Duke 44-16

Two high-powered offenses collide Saturday as the Golden Eagles travel to Lawrence to take on the Jayhawks. This is obviously a big game for Southern Miss, as it is a chance to add a little meat to its current 8-game winning streak (its longest since the 1958-1959 seasons) and unblemished 2009 record by knocking off a ranked team.

The Kansas offense is captained by senior QB Todd Reesing, who would be a household name if he played in any other conference or at any other time not in the shadow of his counterparts at Oklahoma and Texas. All Reesing has done in his career at KU (what’s up with those Plains state’s reversing the initials like that, anyway?) is lead the Jayhawks to 11 straight wins once he was given the reins, become the schools career passing leader with over 7500 yards in 3 seasons, and consistently provide Kansas with one of the 25 most potent offenses in the country. 23-6 as a starter, Reesing is obviously an excellent passer, but he’s also a capable scrambler/runner, and rarely does anything to hurt his team (32 TDs to 13 INTs in ‘08, 6-to-1 so far in ‘09). Essentially, he’s a super-powered mutant version of our own Austin Davis.

Among Reesing’s favorite targets are senior WR Kerry Meier and junior WR Dezmon Briscoe, who are picking up in ‘09 right where they left off in ‘08, when they both went over 1,000 yards and combined for 23 TDs. In Kansas’ first 3 games this year, the tandem has combined for 465 yards and 2 TDs. Also keep your eye on senior RB Jake Sharp out of the backfield, as he has 3 TD receptions on the year in addition to his 240 yards on 42 carries and 3 TDs on the ground.

If there is a weak link in the Jayhawks’ offensive armor, it is the inexperience of its line. The KU O-line entered 2009 having to replace its default starters at center, right guard, left guard, and right tackle, leaving sophomore center (formerly LT) Jeremiah Hatch and sophomore tackle Jeff Spikes as the only O-linemen with any starts under their belts. While the unit has performed admirably so far, Southern Miss may prove a step up in competition from UTEP and Duke.

On defense, Kansas is more experienced up front, with 3 of 4 on the line being returning starters. Tackles Caleb Blakesley and Jamal Green, and end Jake Laptad were expected to anchor the line, but it is senior end Maxwell Onyegbule who’s been providing most of the hurt in ‘09 with 3 sacks, 4 ½ tackles for loss, and an interception. In ‘08, Kansas was 28^th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game, but that appears to be skewed by the pass-happiness of the Big 12, as their per-rush allowance ranked 31 spots lower.  That gap has closed in ‘09, however, as Kansas currently ranks 8th in yards allowed per game and only 14th in yards allowed per carry.

Behind the line, Kansas replaced its entire linebacking corp for 2009, but junior Drew Dudley has emerged as a force with 3 sacks and a whopping 5 tackles for loss in the early stages of the season. Also, the Jayhawks are as experienced in the backfield as they are inexperienced in the middle, and per head coach Mark Mangino, the Jayhawks go with an extra safety instead of 3 backers 80% of the time anyway. Senior safety Darrell Stuckey has been dubbed the leader of the DBs by those in the know and is currently tied for 2^nd on the team in tackles, 1 behind Dudley and CB Justin Thorton. Of note to both Eagle fans and the USM running back stable is the fact that 4 out of KU’s 5 leading tacklers at the moment are DBs. I’m sure Damion Fletcher & Co. would be OK with it if the majority of their plays come to an end in the secondary on Saturday.

What Southern Miss president Martha Saunders referred to as the worst-kept secret in the state became official Thursday when Mississippi State and Southern Miss announced a two-game, two-year, home-and-home football series with games in Starkville in 2014 and Hattiesburg in 2015.

It’s almost anticlimactic to have to wait another 5 years for this after all the rumors and discussion lately, but that was as soon as the two teams’ schedules allowed according to  the schools’ respective athletic directors.

Details here.

Virginia at Southern Miss

Thursday’s line: USM -15.5

First meeting: this one

At a particularly embarrassing 0-2, the Cavaliers limp into Hattiesburg as the final opponent in Southern Miss’ 3-game home stand to open the season after being doubled up by TCU last week and stunned by William and Mary the week before by nearly as bad a score. It’s been trying times in Charlottesville as the Cavs, much like USM last year, try to adjust to a wholly re-vamped spread offense with a lot of new personnel. Unfortunately for Virginia, their transition on that side of the ball has not gone as well as the Eagles’ did.

How bad is it for the Wahoos? Try 19 first downs in 2 games. USM had 23 vs. UCF last Saturday. Heck, Liberty High School in Virginia had 19 last Friday night. Things are so bad that 9th-year head coach Al Groh is grumbling about the negative effect home-crowd booing has on his team’s recruiting.

Surely, something must be going right, no? Well, Saturday’s presumptive starting QB Jameel Sewell, filling in for injured Vic Hall vs. TCU, finished hot, completing 4 of his last 5 passes, including 2 TDs. Granted, that was likely against the Horned Frogs’ defensive scrubs as the game was out of hand by that point, and Sewell had an otherwise mediocre day (8-for-18, 120 yards, 1 interception).

Elsewhere on offense, look for rushing and receiving by committee, as aside from Sewell, only one other back on the team–Mikell Simpson, last year’s 2nd-leading rusher–has double digits in carries, and only Simpson has more than 6 catches so far. Sewell has 138 yards rushing on the young season to lead the pack, and the team’s receiving yardage leader is sophomore WR Kris Burd with 54. Furthermore, last week’s 2 TD passes–the ‘Hoos only on the year, by the way–went to yet 2 more WRs, redshirt freshman Javaris Brown and true freshman Tim Smith. As you can tell from some of those stats, the big play threat has eluded U.Va. thus far.

On the other side of the ball, things aren’t going a whole lot better for the Cavaliers, as they currently sit at #91 in the nation in scoring defense and #71 in total defense. This is not aided by the grand total of 3 sacks Virginia has accumulated (2 vs. T.C.U., 1 vs. W. & M.). Those sacks belong to sophomore DE Matt Conrath, senior LB Denzell Burrell, and sophomore NT Nate Collins. Virginia’s lone interception of the season belongs to senior CB Chris Cook.

Even when it comes to USM’s glaring weakness so far, special teams, the Cavs don’t offer a whole lot of hope, as they have not even attempted a FG yet, and their longest kickoff return has been 28 yards (by Cook). Last week, pre-season All-ACC CB Ras-I Dowling did manage to pick up 34 yards on a punt return after a teammate caught the punt and handed it off, so keep an eye out for some trickeration in that phase.

Saturday’s game boils down to two teams headed in opposite directions: Southern Miss, winners of 7 straight, vs. Virginia, losers of 6 straight and for whom little has gone right in recent memory. Barring a complete collapse on the home side and a miraculous turnaround on the visitors’, the Golden Eagles should hit the road next weekend with 8 straight in their pocket.